Published October 2026. Figures cover the 12 months ending September 2026, which is the most recent data available.
Two things happened in September that point in opposite directions. The county median kept climbing, and the volume underneath it fell hard. Closed sales dropped 14.0 percent year over year and pendings dropped 15.9 percent, while the median still rose. Underneath both, a quieter number moved: distressed inventory is now 7.2 percent of everything for sale, up from 5.4 percent a year ago. Here is what the data says, and what it means for your investment strategy.
The headline numbers
Rolling twelve months ending September 2026, from the Greater San Diego Association of REALTORS Housing Supply Overview.
| Metric | September 2026 | Year-over-year |
|---|---|---|
| Countywide median sale price | $910,000 | +1.1% |
| Single-family median | $1,080,000 | +2.9% |
| Condo and townhome median | $665,000 | −0.7% |
| Active listings (countywide) | 5,684 | −4.8% |
| Months supply, single-family | 2.4 | −14.3% |
| Months supply, condo and townhome | 4.0 | +5.3% |
| Days on market, single-family (12-mo avg) | 37 | +2.8% |
| Percent of original list price (12-mo avg) | 98.2% | +0.4% |
September itself cooled, and rates are the reason
The single month tells a sharper story than the rolling average.
| September-only metric | Detached | Attached | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed sales | 1,112 (−13.9%) | 625 (−14.0%) | 1,737 (−14.0%) |
| Pending sales | 1,082 (−16.8%) | 618 (−14.4%) | 1,700 (−15.9%) |
| New listings | 1,774 (+0.7%) | 1,230 (+3.9%) | 3,004 (+2.0%) |
| Median sale price | $1,079,000 (+5.8%) | $670,000 (−0.2%) | $910,000 (+1.7%) |
| Days on market | 37 (−9.8%) | 44 (+4.8%) | 39 (−4.9%) |
The 30-year fixed moved back above 7 percent in late September, against a 6.67 percent average in August. Pending sales lead closings by about a month, so a 15.9 percent drop in pendings is the number to watch, not the median. Year to date, closings are still up 0.6 percent and the median is up 2.8 percent to $925,000, so this is one month of cooling against a year that has held.
The two halves are still moving at different speeds
Single-family inventory fell 12.9 percent to 2,950 listings and sits at 2.4 months of supply. Condo and townhome inventory rose 5.8 percent to 2,734 and sits at 4.0 months, close to double. That gap is the whole explanation for why the detached median is up 2.9 percent on the year while the condo median is down 0.7 percent.
The fastest part of the market remains the $750,001 to $1,000,000 band at 36 days. The slowest is $5,000,001 and above at 81 days, which is also where pending sales grew fastest over the trailing year at 15.4 percent. The top of the market is transacting on its own clock, as it has all year.
Where the discounts are
This is the part most readers will not see anywhere else, and it is the most actionable number in the report.
Lender-mediated sales, meaning short sales, foreclosures, and estate or probate dispositions, now make up 7.2 percent of county inventory, up from 5.4 percent a year ago. But their share of closed sales slipped from 4.4 percent to 4.3 percent. Supply in that segment is accumulating faster than it clears.
| Lender-mediated inventory | Sept 2025 | Sept 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single-family | 182 | 174 | −4.4% |
| Condo and townhome | 139 | 238 | +71.2% |
| All properties | 321 | 412 | +28.3% |
It is almost entirely a condo story. And the pricing gap is real:
| September median | Lender-mediated | Traditional | Discount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single-family | $885,000 | $1,099,000 | 19.5% |
| Condo and townhome | $577,500 | $675,500 | 14.5% |
The trade is time. Lender-mediated condos averaged 61 days on market against 43 for traditional, and that figure is up 35.6 percent year over year. You are being paid roughly 15 to 20 percent to accept a slower, more complicated close.
Concentration matters more than the countywide average here. The ZIPs carrying the highest distressed share of current inventory are 92106 Point Loma (15.2%), 92154 Nestor (14.6%), 92104 North Park (12.5%), 91910 Chula Vista North (12.5%) and 92128 Rancho Bernardo East (12.3%). The sharpest growth by price band was $250,001 to $500,000, where distressed inventory went from 51 units to 113.
The investor takeaway
- Watch pendings, not the median. A 15.9 percent drop in pending sales with rates back above 7 percent is the leading signal. The median is a trailing one, and it is being held up by mix.
- The condo distress is the opportunity. Growing supply, flat traditional pricing, a 14.5 percent discount, and 61 days on market. Underwrite to current rents and to a slower close, not to appreciation.
- Buy the ZIP, not the county. A 7.2 percent countywide distressed share is not a thesis. A 15.2 percent share in Point Loma is. The concentration is where the work pays.
- Detached acquisition is still a street fight. At 2.4 months of supply and 98.2 percent of original list, nothing about the detached side has loosened. If that is your lane, speed and clean terms still decide it.
Looking ahead
Late fall is usually quieter, which tends to leave only serious buyers and motivated sellers in the market. With detached supply this tight and condo supply still building, those two halves should keep diverging into the holidays. The number that would change the picture is pendings: one soft month is seasonal, two is a trend. If you are weighing how rates factor into timing a sale, our read on listing now against waiting for spring works through that math.
If you want these numbers mapped to your own portfolio, let's run them together or call Richard Ricasata at (619) 318-3400.
Source: Greater San Diego Association of REALTORS Housing Supply Overview, Monthly Indicators, and Lender-Mediated Properties reports, September 2026. Housing Supply Overview published October 5, 2026. Rolling twelve-month figures from the San Diego MLS via ShowingTime Plus. Lender-mediated figures are single-month year-over-year, not rolling twelve months. Mortgage rate figures from Freddie Mac as cited in those reports.